Thursday, July 5, 2007

Your Dunn Chat Questions Answered Here

Today Jonah Keri and Keith Law discussed MLB at ESPN.com (Insider required), and KAD was able to get a few questions in about Dunn:


Keep Adam Dunn (Ohio): The Reds would be foolish to trade AD this season, right? There's no way Krivksy would get fair value. Thanks Jonah.

Jonah Keri: (12:36 PM ET ) Depends what they can get. Dave Cameron os the awesome blog USS Mariner did a study looking back at the past seven years to see what happened when top-flight players were traded at the deadline. Turns out of all the deals made for similar guys, only three times did the team getting prospects back net anything that was all that useful. Now maybe some of those young guys just need more time to develop and work out later. But the take-home lesson from the study was that teams should be very judicious in shopping that kind of players, and should only pull the trigger if they get a great package of talent offered to them. Personally, I'd like to see more teams go after 1-for-1 deals in such situations. It's not that I expect the Angels to trade Brandon Wood straight up, or the Yankees to trade Jose Tabata, etc. But it only takes one desperate team to make a deal like that happen...so it's worth broaching, anyway.

It's unlikely Krivksy will be able to get a 1-for-1 deal for Dunn. So he should just stand pat. Regardless, Wayne would probably rather do a 3 for 1 and pick up some bullpen help (read: overpay for marginal arms that won't help the Reds in any way long term).

WK (Florida): Wouldn't an AL team in the hunt be crazy to pass up on a guy like Dunn when you see similar players like Vernon Wells making $18 million? You would have to think a team in contention would love to have a bomber like that at their DH spot.

Jonah Keri: (12:49 PM ET ) Don't think anyone expected Vernon Wells to tank like this. If he was hitting the way he has in the past, combined with the fact that he's far more valuable to a team as a CF (as opposed to someone like Dunn, who's a stretch to even play LF), then we'd be treated that contract as a market-value deal. But I agree, Dunn could help an AL club, especially one willing/able to DH him. The thing is, there may not be that many potential buyers out there. If you're the Tigers, do you give up booty to get him when you're the best offense in MLB? Do the Yankees make a move when they could Giambi back, who's essentially the same guy but older? There might be a fit with the Angels, but their offense has exceeded expectations, they get Juan Rivera back soon, and Bill Stoneman has always been conservative about trading his young players (with good reason...guys like Kendrick, Napoli et al are big reasons they're doing so well). I'll tell you who I'd like to see make a run at Dunn: the A's? I mean, talk about a perfect fit. The only issue is, who do you DH, Dunn or Jack Cust, who's basically Dunn Jr. (even though, shockingly, he's older than Dunn is). Oakland does need a big bat, though, and you know Beane's not going to stay quiet forever. Should be interesting.

I think trading for AD would go against everything Oakland stands for, especially given that Dunn will become a free agent after this season. Oakland does not contend every year with that payroll by "renting" players for 50 games and giving up prospects.

BD (Ohio): Does Krivksy realize that Adam Dunn is only 27 years old and under a reasonable contract for this season and next considering his production? Why would he trade him now and get far less than fair value? Thanks KLAW.

Keith Law: (1:08 PM ET ) Rivsy can't stand strikeouts. It's a great example of a team focusing more on what a player does poorly than what he does well. I really think they're going to build a team there that hits for average, never walks, and can't figure out why they don't score.

Law left out great bunters. Krivsky and the most vocal of Reds nation clearly want a team of 9 Ryan Freels who will "lay it all on the line" and "play the game the right way." Forget that a team of Freels would struggle to score 600 runs a season, and a team of Adam Dunns would routinely score 1000+; it's more important that teams move runners and look to take an extra base.

10 comments:

JPSchmack said...

Krivsky and the most vocal of Reds nation clearly want a team of 9 Ryan Freels who will "lay it all on the line" and "play the game the right way."

They'd actually need 14 Freels, considering how much they jerk Freel (and everyone else) around the lineup and positions.

The Reds have clearly been a mismanaged franchise. If you are building your team around Dunn and Griffey, you MUST acquire a righty bat who hits lefties well to him between them; clearly define their roles/spots in lineup; and stick to a consistent plan.

If only the Reds could have had a guy who could play OF/1B, OPS .904 vs lefties from 2004-06 and hit him either 3rd or 4th between Griffey and Dunn.

And if the Reds HAD a guy like that, it's important to not trade him to Washington for two injured releivers and mediocre SS.

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Nice discussion by the hosts and I would like to thank ESPN and I also thank to the author of this blog.

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lefties from 2004-06 and hit him either 3rd or 4th between Griffey and Dunn...

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If Dunn and Griffey are responsible for the mismanaging the team then they should take this responsibility.

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Apparently it happens in the MLB with only the very worst white players.

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Now maybe some of those young guys just need more time to develop and work out later. But the take-home lesson from the study was that teams should be very judicious in shopping.

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