Sunday, June 24, 2007

Jonah Keri = not an idiot

One of the major problems I have with most (if not all) Reds fans is their belief that Adam Dunn is not a valuable player because he strikes out way too much. They base their anti-Dunn argument on his strikeout totals and his sub-par defense in left field. Of course by doing so they completely neglect his 40+ homer potential and yearly .900+ OPS, not to mention the fact that Dunn is only 28 years old and likely entering his prime offensive years. Here's to hoping that other MLB general managers are swayed by Dunn's strikeout totals and choose not to make fair offers for Adam Dunn. [Of course, in Wayne Krivsky's case, a fair deal usually means a grossly lopsided deal where the Reds get screwed.] Dunn could (SHOULD) be our foundation for the next 8 years.

Jonah Keri recently addressed Adam Dunn's strengths in an article for ESPN. Specifically he discussed another one of the common Dunn gripes, that he is not "clutch."

After I defended Dunn on air, I got a bunch of angry e-mails from other Reds fans, listing Dunn's supposedly numerous faults, the biggest one being his complete inability to drive runners home, especially in "clutch" situations.

Here are Dunn's averages over the past three seasons:
Situation: AVG/OBP/SLG

All: .249/.380/.533

Scoring position: .236/.434/.538

Scoring position, 2 out: .249/.460/.534

If there's an overarching pattern, I'm not seeing it. Strip out intentional walks and Dunn's the same hitter with or without runners in scoring position...Dunn is one of the best hitters in the game, period.


Again, Jonah Keri = not an idiot. Most Reds fans = idiots.


109 comments:

Anonymous said...

Terrible defensive player + average base runner + good (use this term lightly) hitter = designated hitter. Cincinnati Reds = National league team with no DH. Conclusion Adam Dunn = AL DH. Get over it - the Reds blow, Dunn is expensive and not very useful to an NL team. Get younger, cheaper and get some pitching while waiting for Bruce and Votto to team with Hamilton, Phillips, EE and in the future Valaika, etc. Dunn making $13 mil next year on a sub 500 team with no chance he is back in 09 is a great idea.

Anonymous said...

Right, what pitching are you going to pick up? Why not spend the money well on him and know you won't make a stupid mistake like signing another Eric Milton.

Keep Dunn, the homers, walks, presence and learn that K's are not as bad as you think they are.

gregg said...

Radio request ... can you email me about being a guest on my sports talk show in Cincinnati? My name is Gregg Doyel and I'm on 9 a.m. to noon, weekdays, with Mo Egger on AM 1530. Email address is gregg@1530homer.com.

Anonymous said...

Adam Dunn sucks. Did you watch the game Sunday? Adam Dunn = Loss. Wayne Krivsky is an idoit, cause he has not yet traded "The Donkey". I would take Bo Diaz for Adam Dunn. Would you rather have Torii Hunter or Adam Dunn? Dunn is due to make more money than Hunter. Bottom Line: 13 Million is way to much for a guy that strikes out 200 times a year.

TheNaturalMevs said...

Glad you've made a site dedicated to my favorite baseball player of all time.

Anyone who thinks Adam Dunn sucks can blow me, shitheads.

The Last Unitard said...

One more important reason Dunn sucks and must be traded now while he has the most value he ever will:

Nobody is less clutch than the Big Donkey.

Career average with RISP: .219

Career average with RISP and two outs: .205

Career average with bases loaded: .222

Let him hit 40 solo homers and strike out 200 times for someone else, please.

Anonymous said...

"Would you rather have Torii Hunter or Adam Dunn?"

As a Twins fan, I'd love to have Dunn on my team, but there's no way you can say that Dunn sucks and at the same time expect the Twins to trade (what they feel is) their face of the franchise for him.

We'd give you Scott Baker though :)

Anonymous said...

That argument is kind of like getting into a time machine, going back to the 80's, and begging the Milwaukee Brewers to keep Rob Deer. Dunn is a poor fielder and strikes out way too much. Since the Reds play in the National League, there is no reason to keep a DH on their roster. Try to get something for him while you still can.

CVail said...

I'm with you:

http://culturallearnings.blogspot.com/2007/06/reds-reflux.html

Anonymous said...

Doyel is a boner who cannot write, let alone host a radio show.

Anonymous said...

Would Griffey be having a season like this without Dunn behind him?

Doctor Dribbles said...

Sure, quality thinkers like Jonah Keri point out that Dunn's better than his .BA.

Still, hate to say it, but face it: Dunn really should be moved.

The Reds need pitching, and Krivsky will definitely be able to get Prior, Pavano, or maybe a collection of injured relievers.

Anonymous said...

Thank God somebody understands the value of Dunn. Cincy fans are in love with no pop, scrappy players that all cant hold Dunn's jock. It's sad, embarrassing and pathetic. I almost wish he can leave Cincy so he could go somewhere where he will be appreciated. And to see people continually deny and overlook the stats that say Dunn is a good, almost great hitter, is laughable.

Anonymous said...

I think he could be a poor mans David Ortiz as a D.H. Ortiz wasn't great for the early part of his career (didn't he get release when he was with the Twins?) but turned it around in Boston.

Anonymous said...

Good, almost great hitters hit better than .248 for their career. and mashers are guys like Manny Ramirez who find ways to drive in 120+ runs year after year, unlike Dunn whose career high is 102.

190+ strikeouts=190+ times you do not give your team any chance of something good happening. That is nearly 1/3 of the time for Dunn. Yeah I love guys that strike out every third time up.

Anonymous said...

Let's fire Doyel and replace him with this guy who actually understands baseball and can do your basic greater than/less than arithmetic.

Somebody tell Marty Brenneman that the Reds are not better with Hopper than Dunn.

Anonymous said...

It's really too bad some are still posting batting average in 2007. It's even sadder that they don't realize that the K can actually help you by not resulting in a double play. Most on base situations involve a guy on first. Not to the tune of 190 Ks of course, but that's just focussing on the negative.

Anonymous said...

I agree. Load up on guys with low BAs and tons of Ks. Batting average certainly does not guage a player's worth better than other stats, but is there anything more simple than how many times can you pick up a base hit for me? I love how people throw it away like average does not tell you anything. Maybe if he could hit .260 it would not matter so much, but .240s is pathetic.

BD said...

The difference between .260 and .240s is about 8 or 9 bleeders through the infield over the course of a 162 game season. Is that a big difference? But a .260 hitter would make you happy? And you wonder why BA is not very useful in evaluating hitters?

JPSchmack said...

My new favorite website. If you need someone to contribute, I have a library of Dunn arguments. Like:


Would you want a guy who was first or second in the league in striking out as a batter for 11 straight years?
"No, that's ridiculous. Why would I want that whiffing freak?"
League rank in K's: 1-2-2-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-4-5-9-2-9
That's George Herman Motherhumping Ruth from 1918 to 1934.

Anonymous said...

Thank God there are Reds fans who don't think Dunn is the worst hitter ever. Retards that don't know anything about baseball give him a hard time.

Hopefully there are still GMs around that are as big of dimwits that won't give up enough to convince that dropkick Krivsky to part with Dunn. Though it would take an exceptionally slow mouth-breather to not be able to outwit that lobotomy patient.

Anonymous said...

If Dunn seemed to give an ounce of shit for winning baseball it would be different. He is a homerun/walk collector who statnerds love because they never use their eyes to judge a player. OPS is a great stat when used as one tool among multiple tools to judge a player. Everyone dismisses the 20 - 30 runs Dunn gives up by letting singles become doubles, doubles become triples and outs become basehits. He is lazy, slow and shows no interest in getting better. Dunn just got Narron fired. If he would work on his game instead of being the exact same player he was five years ago, he would get more leeway. He still is a dead pull, high K, high walk, defensive nightmare - the exact same thing he was in 2002. His stat line is too consistent. Great players get more productive in their late twenties. OBP, HRs, RBIs increase while negatives like Ks decrease. Dunn is a 40 HR 90 - 100 RBI player with no chance on increasing to a 50-55 HR, 120+ RBI guy. ManRam is bad in the outfield, but he drives in 130+. I would rather see Jay Bruce take his lumps and work his way into a great player than watch Dunn continue to be an ok hitter/walk machine who never improves, even in what should be his prime. Good job Adam, you got Jerry Narron fired.

Anonymous said...

"Good job Adam, you got Jerry Narron fired."

You act like that's a bad thing.

BD said...

Anon, you write: "Dunn is a 40 HR 90 - 100 RBI player with no chance on increasing to a 50-55 HR, 120+ RBI guy."

Who is a 50-55 HR, 120+ RBI guy? Pujols? A-Rod? Griffey & Bonds in their prime? Sammy Sosa in his steroid induced prime? Notice something about those guys? THEY ARE ALL-TIME GREATS. Who is saying Adam Dunn is an all-time great? I'm saying for $10 MM per year (which is almost 1/3 of A-Rod's salary), Dunn is putting up great numbers. For the Reds' purposes and budget, he is an AMAZING fit. But thanks for breaking that headline that Dunn is not the next Pujols or Babe Ruth, I'll be sure to let the New York Times know about it. That's great insight. Thanks for your input, though. Keep coming back.

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